Half-way Home

From everything I've read, UGA expects to sign 17 or 18 players for it's 2009 recruiting class.

If Aaron Murray announces Thursday, as expected, that puts us at the halfway point......for a class that won't see the field for 16 months. 16 MONTHS.....Why do we even care about 2009's team, when 2008 hasn't even started? The answer is simple........we're a sick bunch. In my case, it's probably a terminal illness.

A few quick notes.

Chase Daniel and Todd Reesing are doing everything in their power to dispel the notion that a QB must be 6'5" tall to be successful. At 6'1", Aaron Murray, while not the typical CMR target height, will be a welcome addition if he decides to commit. He seems to have all of the tools to be successful.

I watched Washaun Ealey play 3 times last year, including the 250 yds he put on my high school in the state championship game. He's definitely the real deal. I think he had 43 carries in that game and never looked tired. He strikes me as more of a straight ahead runner and absolutely attacks the line of scrimmage. But.............he turns 20 this summer while heading into his senior season. Richard Samuel turned 17, sitting in a UGA dormitory in February. Hmmmm.....maybe this means nothing, but I'm putting a red flag by Mr. Ealey's name. Ealey just announced that he will take official visits to other schools, which gives opposing coaches (did somebody say Urban?) 10 months to convince him that being a 21 yr old true freshman 5th string RB might not be his best move. Who knows?

I know that were still going after Jarvis Jones, even though we've already picked up 2 LB's for this class. Here in Columbus, he's already reached "legend status". I know that we're not hurting in the LB department, but he's one of those kids that you'd definitely rather have on you're side, than the alternative.

Now for a question. Where does Donovan Tate fit in this class. He's a super athlete. His dad is Lars Tate. He's a lock, right?........not necessarily. He's a good QB and safety prospect, but prefers QB. UGA prefers that he play safety.

Rising to the Top - Part II

Yesterday I posted the top 20 schools as they rated in signing 4 & 5 star recruits since 2003, which would have made them 5th year seniors in 2007. Now I've thrown away the 2003 class and counted 2008 and the numbers look like this.
(1) USC 79
(2) FLORIDA 77
(3) FSU 75
(4) LSU 71
(5) OKLAHOMA 66
(6) GEORGIA 63
(7) TEXAS 62
(7) MIAMI 62
(9) MICHIGAN 59
(10) OHIO ST. 54
(10) ALABAMA 54
(12) TENNESSEE 52
(13) NOTRE DAME 49
(14) AUBURN 46
(15) CLEMSON 37
(16) S. CAROLINA 36
(17) PENN ST. 35
(17) CALIFORNIA 35
(19) NEBRASKA 34
(20) TEXAS A&M 33

As a point of reference, I'll include these teams that finished in the top 10 on the field; Missouri 14, WVA 7, Kansas 5.

I'll say it again, these are not the numbers on the actual rosters. Some have graduated, jumped to the NFL, and some never made it to school. UGA for example has 51 of the 63 players on it's 2008 roster. 11 of the missing players have used their eligibility and 1 never made it to campus. Maybe I'll track down the actual players on each team's roster in the future, cuz it's gonna be a boring summer.

There's several ways of breaking down the information on this list. Do you need a ton of highly rated recruits to compete? What does it mean when the super talented teams under perform? Why don't the top 10 on the list equal the top 10 in the rankings? I'm just going to look at one for right now - How many good players does a team need to compete at the highest level?

To get a handle on that question, let's look at the number of players that actually see the field in an important, hard-fought game....no blowouts......special teams don't count.....just offense and defense.....and make it a conference game, just to make sure that no holds are barred.

My three models from 2007 are UGA vs Florida, USC vs Oregon, and LSU vs Auburn.
UGA used 52 players
Florida 51
USC 53
Oregon 47
Auburn 49
LSU 48

45 looks like a good solid number to slug it out with the big boys. These don't have to be 4 or 5 star players (although that doesn't hurt), just solid D-1A players. Having more than that doesn't seem to matter, since only 50 or so are going to play. Having less.....you may be in trouble.

Tomorrow, I'll try to put out the list of UGA players that will likely have legitimate playing time in the close ones.

Does the Cream Rise to the Top?

A couple of weeks ago, SMQ posted this article showing that percentage wise, recruiting services have a pretty good eye for talent. It also shows that they can't pick out every diamond in the rough, but when they label a kid as a 5 star or 4 star recruit, that player will definitely have the measurables that would allow them to succeed on the collegiate level.

Early in the 2007 season, several message boards were started regarding talent levels at different schools. Out of curiosity, I went on rivals and started counting 4 and 5 star commits to most of the D-1A programs since 2003, which would have made them 5th year seniors. I didn't count the players that weren't on the 2007 roster, that's not really necessary for this comparison. It simply shows which schools are gathering the most talent. Anybody want to guess in the blind what the list looks like?.....

Here ya go, 5 & 4 star commits to these universities since 2003

1. LSU 76
1. USC 76
3, Florida 75
4. Florida St. 69
5. Oklahoma 67
6. Texas 62
7. Georgia 58
7. Miami 58
9. Tennessee 56
10. Michigan 55
11. Ohio St. 48
12. Auburn 47
13. Notre Dame 38
14. Alabama 36
15. Nebraska 35
15. Penn St. 35
15. South Carolina 35
18. California 34
19. Texas A&M 32
20. Oregon 29

And for quick reference, the final Coaches Poll top 10 with the number of 5 & 4 star commits:

1. LSU 76
2. USC 76
3. GEORGIA 58
4. OHIO ST 48
5. MISSOURI 15
6. WEST VIRGINIA 7
7. KANSAS 5
8. OKLAHOMA 67
9. VA TECH 23
10. TEXAS 62

Looks to me like Kansas, WVU, Missouri, and to some extent Va Tech are being "coached-up" pretty well. On the flip side, Miami and FSU are.....uhhhhh.....mmmm.......sucking? I'll have the numbers for the 2008 5th year senior class sorted out in the next couple of days.