Best of the Best Part III

I started this series of posts a little over a week ago, with an attempt to gain a little better knowledge of the history of the most successful programs in college football history. I’ve taken some statistical categories that I think are extremely important and currently using them to rank the top 17 programs overall. All of the stats used are for the modern-era (1970 – current). The original series of ranking the teams on all-time records is here.

It never ceases to amaze me as to the amount of sheer b.s. that gets printed on message boards and even in articles attributed to many of our mainstream journalists. Too many times we’re fed information and statistics regarding the history of a program that paint rosy pictures, often glossing over the bad. Wow, I can get off-topic in a hurry when traveling down that line of thought. I'll save this for a later post.

Back to the subject at hand. Today, I’m going to rate these teams by conference championships and conference winning percentages. Once again, this is very hard to get a historical perspective on due to the fact that Notre Dame is an independent and Penn St, FSU, and Miami joined conferences in the early 90’s. It brings up an interesting dilemma, especially with Notre Dame when placing them on the list of conference champions. They have 0. Should they be put at the bottom? I don’t think so. In fantasyland, if they were a member of a conference, they would probably have several on their resume. But, which conference? If it’s the Big 10, they would more than likely have thrown their hat into the 2 horse race and brought down Michigan and Ohio State’s large totals in this category. On the other hand, if it’s the Big East, the likely would have silly high totals too. There’s absolutely no fair way to handle the situation, but hey, life isn’t fair. I’ve decided to give them 10th place points.

Here’s a list of the rules.

• 12 points for a 12 team conference championship (SEC 1992 - ), (Big Twelve 1996 - )
• 11 points for 11 teams (Big Ten 1993 - )
• 10 points for 10 teams (Pac Ten 1978 - ), (Big Ten thru 1992), (SEC thru 1991)
• 9 points for 9 teams (ACC 1992-2003)
• 8 points for 8 teams ( Big 8 thru 1995), (SWC thru 1995), (Pac 8 thru 1977), (ACC thru 1991), (Big East)
• 6 points for a 6 team division (Big Twelve 1996 - ), (SEC 1992 - ), (ACC 2005 - )
• Split titles mean split points ( # of teams sharing title divided by teams eligible)

And the results are in

1. OKLAHOMA 170
2. ALABAMA 152.33
3. NEBRASKA 152
4. MICHIGAN 142.33
5. USC 140.33
6. FLORIDA 129
7. OHIO STATE 122.67
8. TEXAS 112
9. FSU 108
10. LSU 86
11. TENNESSEE 76.33
12. GEORGIA 74
13. UCLA 57.33
14. MIAMI 48
15. AUBURN 43
16. PENN STATE 16.5
17. NOTRE DAME 87 (10TH PLACE)

Again, my personal belief is that an SEC title should count for far more than a Big Ten, Big 8, SWC, or ACC due to the level of competition. However, the numbers are what they are, and there’s your list. When ranking from 1 – 17 in this category, I’ve given double points for conference championships because of the importance.

Some will argue that the following list will show just how powerful a team is. I’ll argue that it shows the level of competition. Here’s the conference winning percentages of these teams.

1. MICHIGAN 82
2. NEBRASKA 80
3. OHIO ST 77
4. OKLAHOMA 76
5. FSU 75
6. USC 72
7. ALABAMA 70
8. FLORIDA 68
9. TENNESSEE 66
10. GEORGIA 66
11. TEXAS 65
12. UCLA 63
13. AUBURN 62
14. PENN ST 61
15. MIAMI 61
16. LSU 58
17. NOTRE DAME 66 (10TH PLACE)

I’d like to mention again that due to a recent job change, I’m not able to post as often as I’d like. I leave the house around 5:30 am and usually have to stop at the ball field for the kid’s practices or games, making it 9 pm or so when I finally get home. Since it’s the off season, and most of the junk that I write about isn’t time sensitive, or hot-off-the-wire, it’s not that big of a deal. It just may take 2 or 3 days to put together what I used to do in one.

Best of the Best Part II

Today I’m looking at two more categories for my top 17 teams in the modern era of college football (post 1969). You can see the list here.

Head to Head Overall Wins

This is one of the few categories that reward a team for playing tough schedules. Here’s the list.

FLORIDA 121
ALABAMA 109
AUBURN 96
NOTRE DAME 79
TENNESSEE 71
USC 68
FLORIDA STATE 64
GEORGIA 61
LSU 61
MIAMI 60
OKLAHOMA 55
MICHIGAN 53
NEBRASKA 50
PENN STATE 45
OHIO STATE 41
TEXAS 37
UCLA 35

The bottom feeders on this list will greatly benefit in future categories when conference strength / weakness takes effect.

National Championships

This one gets triple points, because, let’s face it, this is what it’s all about. In ranking from 1-17, I’m giving a consensus MNC 10 points and a split title 7. I dunno where I came up with those numbers, but it sounds fair to me. Any USC fans that want to scream for a split title in 2003, sorry, you’re a BCS member and an agreement has been made that the MNC is the winner of the BCS Title game.

MIAMI 4 CONSENSUS, 1 SPLIT, 47 POINTS
NEBRASKA 3 CONSENSUS, 2 SPLIT, 44 POINTS
OKLAHOMA 3 CONSENSUS, 1 SPLIT, 37 POINTS
ALABAMA 2 CONSENSUS, 2 SPLIT, 34 POINTS
USC 2 CONSENSUS, 2 SPLIT, 34 POINTS
NOTRE DAME 2 CONSENSUS, 1 SPLIT, 27 POINTS
FLORIDA 2 CONSENSUS, 20 POINTS
FLORIDA STATE 2 CONSENSUS, 20 POINTS
LSU 2 CONSENSUS, 20 POINTS
PENN STATE 2 CONSENSUS, 20 POINTS
TEXAS 1 CONSENSUS, 1 SPLIT, 17 POINTS
GEORGIA 1 CONSENSUS, 10 POINTS
OHIO STATE 1 CONSENSUS, 10 POINTS
TENNESSEE 1 CONSENSUS, 10 POINTS
MICHIGAN 1 SPLIT, 7 POINTS
AUBURN 0
UCLA 0

Coming soon.....conference championships

Best of the Best

I realize that I didn’t post yesterday, but I wasn’t exactly goofing off. Here's a post of T. Kyle King proportion. (UPDATE, 6:00 PM; I just read this.....I'm not worthy. Mr. King has just earned double billing over in the sidebar>>>>>>>>>>>>>)

A couple of weeks ago, I started a series of posts on the top 16 programs in college football history. You can check those out here, just remember that the bottom of the page is first.

I’m gonna rank ‘em again, but this time only using numbers accumulated during the modern era, post 1969. Is that relevant? I think it is. Integration began sweeping college football and the NCAA actually started to impose scholarship limits. The screwed up system that awarded MNC’s was starting to stabilize a little. As a point of reference, I’ll list the MNC’s for the top 10 programs pre 1969. These are all taken from the NCAA’s website.

1. Princeton 18
2. Yale 17
3. Michigan 9
4. Harvard 8
4. Notre Dame 8
6. Minnesota 6
7. Alabama 5
8. Army 4
8. Ohio State 4
8. USC 4

Even into the 60’s, MNC’s were awarded before the bowl games and often a team had the trophy in hand and lost their bowl game. The system was also heavily biased, often using the Tom Lemming ranking system (does anyone need a heads-up on that definition?). As screwed up as our system is today, it’s the best that it’s ever been.

I’m also going to include a 17th team this time around. UCLA has posted some pretty good numbers across the board. If not for the 2 MNC’s in the last 5 years, LSU would definitely be OFF the list. For any GA TECH fans, sorry, but the overall 44% win pct in the head to head numbers went to 29% in the modern era. That don’t cut it. The only other team that was close was Texas A&M, and the numbers weren’t quite strong enough.

THE TEAMS
ALABAMA
AUBURN
FLORIDA
FLORIDA STATE
GEORGIA
LSU
MIAMI
MICHIGAN
NEBRASKA
NOTRE DAME
OHIO STATE
OKLAHOMA
PENN STATE
TENNESSEE
TEXAS
UCLA
USC


Here are the criteria that will be scored, in no particular order. The top team in each gets 17 points in each category, 2nd gets 16, ……etc.

Head to head games played
Head to head win pct
Head to head overall wins
National Championships
Conference championships
Conference win pct
BCS opponents overall games played
BCS opponents win pct
Overall number of wins
Overall win pct
OOC BCS opponents games played – higher is better
OOC BCS opponents win pct
OOC Non BCS opponents games played – lower is better

Ok, time for the first round. When these teams have played head to head, here are the winning percentages.

USC .581
ALABAMA .565
OKLAHOMA .556
FLORIDA .548
NOTRE DAME .537
NEBRASKA .526
MICHIGAN .525
AUBURN .503
TEXAS .500
FLORIDA STATE .492
GEORGIA .480
MIAMI .465
TENNESSEE .461
OHIO STATE .456
PENN STATE .441
UCLA .407
LSU .399

Of all of the stats that you’ll see posted, this is the one that I feel is the most important. Once there is a sufficient number of games played, there’s really no spin that can be put on pure winning percentages. The best playing the best, and USC wins round 1.

Every other category is heavily influenced by strength of conference, even MNC’s. If anyone has doubts on conference strengths, I’ll post this for reference. Here are the winning percentages versus these 17 teams for each BCS Conference.

The ACC
FLORIDA STATE .492
MIAMI .465
CLEMSON .328
VIRGINIA TECH .293
GA TECH .289
VIRGINIA .275
BOSTON COLLEGE .272
NC STATE .255
UNC .222
WAKE FOREST .154
MARYLAND .129
DUKE .116

Analysis
Coaching issues at Miami and FSU have them struggling recently. When they get it straightened out, and I think it will be soon, look for this to be a two horse race again. They simply have too much talent. The rest of the conference, historically, has been weak.

The BIG TWELVE
OKLAHOMA .556
NEBRASKA .526
TEXAS .500
TEXAS A&M .381
COLORADO .298
TEXAS TECH .244
KANSAS ST .211
BAYLOR .200
MISSOURI .184
KANSAS .134
OKLAHOMA ST .129
IOWA ST .086

Analysis
Since the merger of the Big 8 and SWC, this conference has 3 good teams at the top with Texas A&M lurking in the shadows. Before the merger, there were two very weak conferences. Since…….still pretty crappy, the bottom is horrid, but the top is strong.

The BIG EAST
PITTSBURGH .282
SYRACUSE .246
SOUTH FLORIDA .200
WEST VIRGINIA .164
LOUISVILLE .111
RUTGERS .049
CINCINNATI .027
UCONN .000

Analysis
This conference gets an automatic BCS bid each year. Go figure.

The BIG TEN
MICHIGAN .525
OHIO STATE .456
PENN STATE .441
WISCONSIN .284
MICHIGAN ST .254
IOWA .243
PURDUE .197
ILLINOIS .177
NORTHWESTERN .115
MINNESOTA .113
INDIANA .047

Analysis
Not to hard to see how a conference can consistently produce 12 game winners when 8 games are automatics every year. With 5 teams under 20%, that almost counts as 5 bye weeks during the season.

The PAC TEN
USC .581
UCLA .407
WASHINGTON .381
ARIZONA ST .329
STANFORD .325
OREGON .300
ARIZONA .292
CAL .260
WASHINGTON ST .226
OREGON ST .138

Analysis
I’m actually quite surprised. Of course USC is heads and shoulders above the rest, but through #6 there’s not a dog in that bunch. Far and away the 2nd strongest conference top to bottom. When I put together my original top teams list, I just shot from the hip and it just so happens to match the top 17 teams when using this stat. How far out are the PAC TEN’S 3-6? WASSOU 19th, ARIZONA ST 20th, STANFORD 22nd, and OREGON 23rd.

The SEC
ALABAMA .565
FLORIDA .548
AUBURN .503
GEORGIA .480
TENNESSEE .461
LSU .399
ARKANSAS .294
MSU .279
OLE MISS .242
SOUTH CAROLINA .209
KENTUCKY .168
VANDY .075

Analysis
The 6th place team is dominating the college football landscape. Enuf said.

As I’ve often said, it doesn’t matter how many wins you get versus Vandy, Indiana, Duke, Iowa St, or any Big East team, it’s how you do against the big boys that matter. To USC……kudos.


OOC NON-BCS OPPONENTS

Since the SEC takes a lot of heat for this subject, let’s see the numbers.
Here’s a list that doesn’t get scored, but it bears mentioning.
Division 1-AA (or FCS since well enough can’t be left alone) opponents scheduled by each team.
MIAMI 14
AUBURN 13
GEORGIA 9
FLORIDA 8
FSU 8
NEBRASKA 6
ALABAMA 5
LSU 4
TEXAS 4
OKLAHOMA 3
PENN STATE 3
TENNESSEE 2
MICHIGAN 1 and probably the last
OHIO STATE 1
NOTRE DAME 0
UCLA 0
USC 0

Sometimes when you play with fire, you get burned. 3 times as a matter of fact. Here’s the list of Division 1-AA losses by our illustrious 17.

10/16/1970; Tampa 31 Miami 14
10/6/1979; FAMU 16 Miami 13
9/1/2007; Appalachian St 34 Michigan 32

Ok, the SEC is guilty of scheduling more of these schools than the other big boys. But…..some of these 1-AA schools are better than your conference bottom dwellers, that’s for sure. Just ask Michigan.

Now for the official list of out of conference games played versus non-BCS conference members. These are the automatics that teams schedule. Many considerations have to be made for Notre Dame and the fact that they are not a member of a conference. No consideration is given in the patsy scheduling department. Texas suffers the most here because half of their SWC games got wiped out with the Big 12 merger. Remember, less is better.

The List

USC 32
MICHIGAN 39
OHIO STATE 42
OKLAHOMA 43
GEORGIA 46
UCLA 54
NEBRASKA 57
FLORIDA 74
TENNESSEE 75
PENN STATE 76
AUBURN 79
ALABAMA 87
FLORIDA STATE 87
LSU 92
NOTRE DAME 94
MIAMI 102
TEXAS 142

Once again, USC is on top. As a Georgia fan, I can defend our position on this board rather easily. The SEC as a whole is middle of the pack and should make efforts to upgrade the level of competition in the future.

Here’s the last category of the day. Head to head total games played with these 17 teams, otherwise known as opposite of the previous list. More is better.



FLORIDA 224
AUBURN 195
ALABAMA 195
TENNESSEE 159
LSU 157
NOTRE DAME 147
FLORIDA STATE 132
GEORGIA 130
MIAMI 129
USC 121
OKLAHOMA 103
PENN STATE 102
MICHIGAN 101
NEBRASKA 97
OHIO STATE 92
UCLA 90
TEXAS 77

Hah…..USC is not #1. Ok, does banging heads with the big boys make up for some softer OOC scheduling? Maybe a little. You make the call.

For those keeping score at home, after 3 of the 13 criteria, USC has the early lead.

More to come……….